It’s official. The rematch that nobody wanted is going to happen.
No, that’s not true.
The rematch is going to happen, but people definitely wanted it despite protestations to the contrary. In large part, Trump supporters wanted it. Republicans passed over a number of better-qualified candidates with less baggage. Republicans clearly want Trump.
The matter isn’t as clear cut for Democrats. Biden remains unpopular, but incumbent presidents are hard to beat in a party primary That’s especially true when no one challenges them. Well, no one with a shot at winning anyway.
Personally, I’d say that Biden remaining in the race is a blessing in disguise. Consider who the Democratic nominee might be if Biden hadn’t run for reelection. Kamala Harris? Gavin Newsom? My suspicion is that any non-Biden candidate would be much further to the left than the incumbent.
Even though Trump currently leads in the polls, I will predict today that the situation reverses by Election Day and Biden wins a second term. There are a few reasons for this aside from my inherent anti-Trump leanings.
First, Biden already has a healthy fundraising advantage. The Biden campaign has far more cash on hand than Trump and that’s unlikely to change. A few days ago, Trump allies took control of the RNC and engaged in a massive purge of staffers. The late changes to Republican infrastructure don’t bode well for increasing cash flow in the late stages of the campaign, and that’s not even considering the possibility that the RNC will shift money to Trump’s legal bills rather than funding campaigns for The Former Guy and down ballot races.
By November, Biden and Democrats might well be dominating the airwaves. It could get ugly for Republicans up and down the ticket.
Second, one reason Biden is polling poorly is that Democrats think he’s too moderate. A lot of discontent on the left comes from those who prefer a more liberal candidate. These people are likely to come back into the fold before the election because no one unites Democrats like Donald Trump.
The same goes for sympathizers of Palestine. Many of these people are hesitant to vote Biden because of his support for Israel. These people may not vote Biden, but they definitely aren’t going to vote Trump. The best hope for Republicans is that they and other progressives stay home.
That’s unlikely because Donald Trump is Biden’s best campaigner. The Former Guy can’t shut up and he can’t not be crazy. So far, his zaniness and malevolence is ramped up in 2024 over previous years. It’s going to get worse.
At the same time, Trump is dividing his own party. A great many Republicans won’t vote for Trump again. This happened in the past when Trump underperformed other Republicans on the same ballot and it it will happen again. Driving voters out of the party is no way to win.
Michael Medved, my favorite conservative radio talker, used to say that voters tend to reject crazy, scary candidates. That rule of thumb often holds true unless a candidate forgets to campaign in the Rust Belt or makes similar errors.
The moderate and independent voters who will decide the election aren’t paying attention yet, but they will. As the election nears and people start listening to Trump, Biden will sound better and better.
The election isn’t over. We’ve barely started, but the die is cast. I won’t say Trump can’t win, but Republicans have an uphill struggle due to the choice to run a deeply flawed, unpopular candidate with tons of baggage.
My hope is that the Republican Party will see the lesson in the loss and reverse course away from Trumpism rather than resort to violence again. The odds for for that are long so the best hope for conservatives may be to attempt to influence the Democratic Party to move toward the center. Either way, it’s going to be a long eight months until the election and a long four years.
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