A new round of head-to-head polling from the swing states
came in yesterday and the results are somewhat encouraging for Republicans. While
Donald Trump trails the leading Democrats in national polling, many of the
swing state races are too close to call.
Due to the large number of candidates and states to examine,
for clarity, I will present each state separately and give Trump’s net poll
rating with each candidate based on the Real Clear Politics average. A negative
rating means that Trump is behind and a positive rating means that he is ahead.
For reference, I’m also including the latest state-level Trump approval numbers
from Morning Consult,
which were taken as the Ukraine whistleblower scandal was breaking in late
September.
National
Arizona
Trump vs. Warren 0.7
Florida
Trump approval -2
Iowa
Trump approval -14
Michigan
Trump approval -10
North Carolina
Trump approval -3
Ohio (no recent polling)
Trump approval -5
Pennsylvania
Trump approval -8
Wisconsin
Trump approval -11
There are a couple of important takeaways from this
polling, even though the election is still a year away. The first is that Joe
Biden is a stronger candidate in the swing states than Elizabeth Warren or
Bernie Sanders. In six of the seven swing states with recent head-to-head
polling, Biden leads Donald Trump. Warren fares worst of the three top-tier
Democrats, but Bernie Sanders is not much better.
Second, Trump approval is a pretty good proxy for how he
stacks up in a head-to-head matchup in most cases, although this is dependent
on individual candidates as well and the numbers don’t match up exactly. In
only one of the states examined, Iowa, does Trump have a negative approval
rating but leads in polling.
Finally, as we saw in 2016, it isn’t enough for the Democrats
to win the popular vote and expect that to translate into an Electoral College
victory. The Democrats must give Donald Trump a 5-10 point shellacking in the
popular vote to be assured of winning enough swing states to secure the White
House. This is especially true due to the difficulties of state-level polling
in swing states.
Based on the current polling presented above (while
assuming Ohio stays red), Joe Biden would win the Electoral College by 333-205 and
Bernie Sanders would eke out a 273-265 victory. Elizabeth Warren would lose by
258-280, but many states are actually too close to project in a Warren-Trump
matchup. Neither side could be confident of victory at this point, although
Warren does seem to represent Trump’s best chance at reelection.
The election is a long way away and a lot can happen. In the
current cycle, that is even more true than most years due to the breaking
Ukraine scandal, impeachment, the slowing economy, and a number of other
factors. While the swing states are not looking good for Donald Trump, they are
looking much better than the national average, but that’s why they call them
battleground states.
While many of the state-level races are not polled
frequently, it will be important to watch them for trends over the next year. Significant
movement in one direction or the other could represent a changing dynamic within
the election.
Originally published on The
Resurgent
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