Two days before the midterm elections, there are signs that
Democratic Senate candidates might be gaining on their Republican opponents. A
number of polls released over the first days of November show Beto O’Rourke in
Texas, Kirsten Sinema in Arizona, and Phil
Bredesen gaining ground.
In Texas, a Change
Research poll found O’Rourke tied with Republican Senator Ted Cruz
at 49 percent after weeks of Cruz holding a solid lead. In early October, Cruz held
a solid lead averaging in the high single-digits, but polling over the last two
weeks showed O’Rourke narrowing the race.
The Change Research poll of 1,211 likely voters showed Cruz
with near unanimous support among Republicans, but with O’Rourke leading other
groups. O’Rourke has “over 99% of Clinton 2016 voters, over 90% among Jill
Stein voters, and double-digit leads with
2016 non-voters and Gary Johnson voters,” the organization posted on Twitter.
In Tennessee, another race that has been trending toward the
Republican candidate, Marsha Blackburn, in recent weeks, a new poll suddenly
put Democrat Phil Bredesen back in the race. The Targoz
poll of 480 likely voters has a small sample size and comes after three
consecutive polls showing Blackburn with a lead of more than five points.
In Arizona, the polling is erratic and swings wildly from
one candidate to the other. Of the two polls taken in November, one favors
Republican Martha McSally by 5.6 points and the other favors Democrat Sinema by three points. The Trafalgar
poll favoring Sinema has a sample size of 2,166 likely voters, which is more
than three times as large as the 600 voters sampled in the Harris
poll that favored McSally.
The state of the races in Florida and Missouri are also very
close. Polling in Florida varies between showing leads for incumbent Democrat
Bill Nelson and Republican challenger, Rick Scott. In Missouri, Democrat
Senator Claire McCaskill and Republican Josh Hawley are locked in another
margin of error race. The most
recent poll there has the largest sample size, 1,424 voters, had the
two candidates tied at 47 percent.
A possible explanation for the shakeup is President Trump’s
concentration on illegal immigration and the migrant caravan moving through
Mexico. The president’s rhetoric, including a statement that soldiers
would shoot members of the caravan who throw rocks, may have
inspired some moderates and independents
to oppose Republican candidates. President Trump’s plan to issue an
Executive Order to end birthright citizenship may also have inspired
opposition among swing voters in addition to exciting his base.
While the polling appears to show a slight surge for
Democrats in several races, it is too early to tell whether this represents a
fluke or if there is a legitimate last-minute rally. It is very possible that
the polls represent outliers that do not accurately report a change in the
status of the race.
Since three of these very close races are for Republican
seats, if the polling is correct, Democrat hopes for a Senate majority remain
alive. To make it a reality though, Democrats would have to sweep all five
states since Heidi Heitkamp‘s seat in North Dakota will go red.
With only one day left before the election, the answer is
likely to be found only when the official election results come in on Tuesday
night. With at least five Senate races too close to call, it will come down to
which side is able to better motivate their supporters to get to the polls.
Originally published
on The
Resurgent
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