Republicans got another breath of fresh air today when the Cook Political
Report moved the New Jersey Senate race to tossup status. Senator Bob
Menendez, the Democrat incumbent, has been saddled with ethics problems that give
the Republicans a chance to flip his seat in this dark blue state.
Sen. Menendez had been charged with granting political
favors in exchange for donations. He was acquitted
on some charges last January after a jury failed to reach a verdict on the
18 counts against him last year. The Justice Department declined to retry Menendez
on the other counts and dropped
the charges. After his acquittal, the Senate
Ethics Committee admonished Menendez in April for accepting gifts without
proper approval. Despite his legal problems, Menendez won the Democratic
primary with 62
percent of the vote.
Menendez began the race with a 20-point advantage over Bob
Hugin, a healthcare CEO, but the Republican challenger has closed the race to
single digits. The most recent
public poll, posted on Oct. 24, gave Menendez a five-point lead. Menendez
leads in the Real
Clear Politics average by 7.7 points.
Other forecasters have not followed Cook’s lead in moving
the race toward the Republicans. Larry
Sabato’s Crystal Ball still rates New Jersey as “likely Democrat” and FiveThirtyEight’s
forecasting model makes Menendez a heavy favorite with a 90 percent chance of
winning and an estimated vote share of 53 percent.
Even if Menendez ultimately holds onto his seat, the tightening
race means that Democrats will have to pour more money and effort into
retaining a seat that should have been secure. That means that fewer resources
will be directed toward the tossup for races for Republican seats that
Democrats need to win in order to build a Senate majority.
Originally published
on The
Resurgent
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